{
  "version": "outlook-1.0",
  "updated": "2026-09-29",
  "issue": {
    "id": "2026-09-29",
    "published": "2026-09-29",
    "data_date": "2026-09-29",
    "version": "outlook-1.0",
    "headline": "Financing pressure is squeezing buyers.",
    "confidence": "Provisional view",
    "summary": "Our national read: financing is the main pressure point. Inventory and sales provide context, but the national average cannot tell you what one home will sell for.",
    "buyers": "Budget with today\u2019s quoted payment. Compare nearby closed sales and ask about concessions where listings are lingering; do not assume a national signal means a local discount.",
    "sellers": "Anchor the asking price to recent comparable sales. Watch competing inventory and buyer feedback before assuming last year\u2019s price still holds.",
    "watch": "A sustained easing in mortgage rates, falling inventory, and stronger sales would weaken the cautious view. Persistent financing pressure and weaker sales would strengthen it.",
    "score": 57.1,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "key": "mortgage_rate",
        "label": "30Y Mortgage Rate",
        "value": "7.03%",
        "detail": "Latest reported observation",
        "observed": "2026-09-24",
        "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "key": "active_inv",
        "label": "Active Inventory",
        "value": "1,140,035 listings",
        "detail": "+3.60% year over year",
        "observed": "2026-08-01",
        "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS"
      },
      {
        "key": "days_on_mkt",
        "label": "Median Days on Market",
        "value": "60 days",
        "detail": "+0.00% year over year",
        "observed": "2026-08-01",
        "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS"
      },
      {
        "key": "new_home_sales",
        "label": "New Home Sales",
        "value": "684,000 annualized",
        "detail": "-2.01% year over year",
        "observed": "2026-08-01",
        "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F"
      },
      {
        "key": "case_shiller",
        "label": "Case-Shiller Index",
        "value": "+1.53% year over year",
        "detail": "Latest reported observation",
        "observed": "2026-06-01",
        "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA"
      },
      {
        "key": "unemployment",
        "label": "Unemployment Rate",
        "value": "4.10%",
        "detail": "Latest reported observation",
        "observed": "2026-08-01",
        "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE"
      }
    ],
    "missing": [],
    "stale": [],
    "change": "First weekly issue. No earlier published outlook to compare."
  },
  "archive": [
    {
      "id": "2026-09-29",
      "published": "2026-09-29",
      "data_date": "2026-09-29",
      "version": "outlook-1.0",
      "headline": "Financing pressure is squeezing buyers.",
      "confidence": "Provisional view",
      "summary": "Our national read: financing is the main pressure point. Inventory and sales provide context, but the national average cannot tell you what one home will sell for.",
      "buyers": "Budget with today\u2019s quoted payment. Compare nearby closed sales and ask about concessions where listings are lingering; do not assume a national signal means a local discount.",
      "sellers": "Anchor the asking price to recent comparable sales. Watch competing inventory and buyer feedback before assuming last year\u2019s price still holds.",
      "watch": "A sustained easing in mortgage rates, falling inventory, and stronger sales would weaken the cautious view. Persistent financing pressure and weaker sales would strengthen it.",
      "score": 57.1,
      "evidence": [
        {
          "key": "mortgage_rate",
          "label": "30Y Mortgage Rate",
          "value": "7.03%",
          "detail": "Latest reported observation",
          "observed": "2026-09-24",
          "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US"
        },
        {
          "key": "active_inv",
          "label": "Active Inventory",
          "value": "1,140,035 listings",
          "detail": "+3.60% year over year",
          "observed": "2026-08-01",
          "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS"
        },
        {
          "key": "days_on_mkt",
          "label": "Median Days on Market",
          "value": "60 days",
          "detail": "+0.00% year over year",
          "observed": "2026-08-01",
          "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEDDAYONMARUS"
        },
        {
          "key": "new_home_sales",
          "label": "New Home Sales",
          "value": "684,000 annualized",
          "detail": "-2.01% year over year",
          "observed": "2026-08-01",
          "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F"
        },
        {
          "key": "case_shiller",
          "label": "Case-Shiller Index",
          "value": "+1.53% year over year",
          "detail": "Latest reported observation",
          "observed": "2026-06-01",
          "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA"
        },
        {
          "key": "unemployment",
          "label": "Unemployment Rate",
          "value": "4.10%",
          "detail": "Latest reported observation",
          "observed": "2026-08-01",
          "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE"
        }
      ],
      "missing": [],
      "stale": [],
      "change": "First weekly issue. No earlier published outlook to compare."
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "issued": "2026-09-29",
      "start": "2027-01-01",
      "end": "2027-12-01",
      "model": "no-change",
      "point": 684.0,
      "low": 556.1,
      "high": 811.9,
      "baseline": 684.0,
      "anchor_month": "2026-08-01",
      "unit": "thousands of homes, seasonally adjusted annual rate",
      "metric": "Mean monthly US new single-family home sales rate",
      "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F",
      "version": "outlook-1.0",
      "status": "experimental",
      "evaluation": {
        "train_windows": 224,
        "test_windows": 64,
        "test_start": "2020-01-01",
        "test_end": "2025-04-01",
        "mae": 84.7,
        "baseline_mae": 84.7,
        "range_coverage": 75.0
      },
      "limitations": "Revised-data retrospective test; monthly origins overlap. Model selected on pre-2020 target periods, then evaluated on origins from 2020. No historical release vintages or release-lag reconstruction. The range covers 80% of training errors, not a guaranteed 80% future probability. GH is not an input.",
      "id": "annual-2027-01",
      "kind": "annual",
      "input_sha256": "ff15be2111ace09b784595c35d13c436b1cb08955b2937398ff054d0feb63d33",
      "score_at_issue": 57.1
    },
    {
      "issued": "2026-09-29",
      "start": "2026-10-01",
      "end": "2026-12-01",
      "model": "no-change",
      "point": 684.0,
      "low": 614.7,
      "high": 753.3,
      "baseline": 684.0,
      "anchor_month": "2026-08-01",
      "unit": "thousands of homes, seasonally adjusted annual rate",
      "metric": "Mean monthly US new single-family home sales rate",
      "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F",
      "version": "outlook-1.0",
      "status": "experimental",
      "evaluation": {
        "train_windows": 236,
        "test_windows": 76,
        "test_start": "2020-01-01",
        "test_end": "2026-04-01",
        "mae": 60.9,
        "baseline_mae": 60.9,
        "range_coverage": 72.4
      },
      "limitations": "Revised-data retrospective test; monthly origins overlap. Model selected on pre-2020 target periods, then evaluated on origins from 2020. No historical release vintages or release-lag reconstruction. The range covers 80% of training errors, not a guaranteed 80% future probability. GH is not an input.",
      "id": "quarter-2026-10",
      "kind": "quarter",
      "input_sha256": "ff15be2111ace09b784595c35d13c436b1cb08955b2937398ff054d0feb63d33",
      "score_at_issue": 57.1
    }
  ],
  "tracking": [
    {
      "id": "annual-2027-01",
      "observed_months": 0,
      "total_months": 12,
      "as_of": "2026-09-29",
      "result": null
    },
    {
      "id": "quarter-2026-10",
      "observed_months": 0,
      "total_months": 3,
      "as_of": "2026-09-29",
      "result": null
    }
  ],
  "score_history_note": "GH observations begin July 2026. No validated 3\u20139 month predictive relationship has been established for GH."
}