Our read on the US housing market, with the numbers underneath it.
An opinion, not a promise.
What would change our mind:
These are guesses, not a validated prediction system. We’re starting with US new-home sales. The method is deliberately simple; the original call stays on the record.
A national lens. Your neighborhood, budget, and timeline still matter.
Our record starts here.
No backdated wins. We compare each guess with simply holding the last reported number flat. Results use the first complete target period our daily run observes; later data revisions don’t overwrite that result. These annualized rates are not actual quarterly or annual sales totals.
Josh’s housing-market experiment. A transparent set of rules writes the weekly take from the data; it is not a claim that a human analyst reviewed it every week. The take freezes on the first successful run each week. Daily gauges continue to move.
The GH score is a designed pressure index with chosen weights and thresholds. It is not a probability, a valuation, or an established forecasting model. Its 3–9 month predictive ability has not been demonstrated. The sales guesses use recent sales history, not GH.
We tested two simple sales rules against past observations. That exercise uses revised data and overlapping periods, so it is a historical sanity check—not proof we could have predicted those outcomes in real time. The method, original inputs, guesses, and results are available below.
The individual scores below track financing, housing activity, the economy, and market performance. Together with headline sentiment, they feed our proprietary weighted housing score. Higher scores mean greater pressure on the housing market.
JWGRE is the home of Joshua Gibson's experiments in AI, agentic coding, and proptech — a one-person lab and incubator where real-estate businesses get built, instrumented, and improved by Josh and his tech stack. Everything below is alive and well.
A housing-market pressure gauge that rebuilds itself every morning — engine, brief, and deploy run headless, no human in the loop.
A working South Florida brokerage on an agent-operated site: AI home search, live radar feed, renovation-scope vision tool, one-command deploys.
Protected closings — escrow security software where AI guides buyers, sellers, and title offices through the most dangerous wire of their lives.
One scam a day, decoded — real-estate and wire fraud field guide: the method, the counter-moves. Fed by the daily fraud research machine.
More experiments in various states of assembly — design tooling, lead engines, public-records scanners. New instruments ship when they're ready.